1.
Smith, Todd, et al.
(author)
Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals : a systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies
2019
In: Gut. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0017-5749 .- 1468-3288. ; 68, s. 672-683
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
OBJECTIVE: To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts.DESIGN: Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability).RESULTS: The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC.CONCLUSION: Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.
2.
Ekelund, Ulf, et al.
(author)
Physical activity and all-cause mortality across levels of overall and abdominal adiposity in European men and women : the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study (EPIC)
2015
In: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 101:3, s. 613-621
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
Background: The higher risk of death resulting from excess adiposity may be attenuated by physical activity (PA). However, the theoretical number of deaths reduced by eliminating physical inactivity compared with overall and abdominal obesity remains unclear.Objective: We examined whether overall and abdominal adiposity modified the association between PA and all-cause mortality and estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) and the years of life gained for these exposures.Design: This was a cohort study in 334,161 European men and women. The mean follow-up time was 12.4 y, corresponding to 4,154,915 person-years. Height, weight, and waist circumference (WC) were measured in the clinic. PA was assessed with a validated self-report instrument. The combined associations between PA, BMI, and WC with mortality were examined with Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by center and age group, and adjusted for sex, education, smoking, and alcohol intake. Center-specific PAF associated with inactivity, body mass index (BMI; in kg/m(2)) (>30), and WC (>= 102 cm for men, >= 88 cm for women) were calculated and combined in random-effects meta-analysis. Life-tables analyses were used to estimate gains in life expectancy for the exposures.Results: Significant interactions (PA x BMI and PA x WC) were observed, so HRs were estimated within BMI and WC strata. The hazards of all-cause mortality were reduced by 16-30% in moderately inactive individuals compared with those categorized as inactive in different strata of BMI and WC. Avoiding all inactivity would theoretically reduce all-cause mortality by 7.35% (95% CI: 5.88%, 8.83%). Corresponding estimates for avoiding obesity (BMI >30) were 3.66% (95% CI: 2.30%, 5.01%). The estimates for avoiding high WC were similar to those for physical inactivity.Conclusion: The greatest reductions in mortality risk were observed between the 2 lowest activity groups across levels of general and abdominal adiposity, which suggests that efforts to encourage even small increases in activity in inactive individuals may be beneficial to public health.
3.
Emaus, Marleen J., et al.
(author)
Vegetable and fruit consumption and the risk of hormone receptor-defined breast cancer in the EPIC cohort
2016
In: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 103:1, s. 168-177
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
Background: The recent literature indicates that a high vegetable intake and not a high fruit intake could be associated with decreased steroid hormone receptor–negative breast cancer risk.Objective: This study aimed to investigate the association between vegetable and fruit intake and steroid hormone receptor–defined breast cancer risk.Design: A total of 335,054 female participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort were included in this study (mean ± SD age: 50.8 ± 9.8 y). Vegetable and fruit intake was measured by country-specific questionnaires filled out at recruitment between 1992 and 2000 with the use of standardized procedures. Cox proportional hazards models were stratified by age at recruitment and study center and were adjusted for breast cancer risk factors.Results: After a median follow-up of 11.5 y (IQR: 10.1–12.3 y), 10,197 incident invasive breast cancers were diagnosed [3479 estrogen and progesterone receptor positive (ER+PR+); 1021 ER and PR negative (ER−PR−)]. Compared with the lowest quintile, the highest quintile of vegetable intake was associated with a lower risk of overall breast cancer (HRquintile 5–quintile 1: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.80, 0.94). Although the inverse association was most apparent for ER−PR− breast cancer (ER−PR−: HRquintile 5–quintile 1: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.57, 0.96; P-trend = 0.03; ER+PR+: HRquintile 5–quintile 1: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.79, 1.05; P-trend = 0.14), the test for heterogeneity by hormone receptor status was not significant (P-heterogeneity = 0.09). Fruit intake was not significantly associated with total and hormone receptor–defined breast cancer risk.Conclusion: This study supports evidence that a high vegetable intake is associated with lower (mainly hormone receptor–negative) breast cancer risk.
4.
van Bakel, Marit M E, et al.
(author)
Methodological challenges in the application of the Glycemic Index in epidemiological studies using data from the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition
2009
In: Journal of Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-3166 .- 1541-6100. ; 139:3, s. 568-575
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
Associations between the glycemic index (GI) or glycemic load (GL) and diseases are heterogeneous in epidemiological studies. Differences in assigning GI values to food items may contribute to this inconsistency. Our objective was to address methodological issues related to the use of current GI and GL values in epidemiological studies. We performed ecological comparison and correlation studies by calculating dietary GI and GL from country-specific dietary questionnaires (DQ) from 422,837 participants from 9 countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study and single standardized 24-h dietary recalls (24-HDR) obtained from a representative sample (n = 33,404) using mainly Foster Powell's international table as a reference source. Further, 2 inter-rater and 1 inter-method comparison were conducted, comparing DQ GI values assigned by independent groups with values linked by us. The ecological correlation between DQ and 24-HDR was good for GL (overall r = 0.76; P < 0.005) and moderate for GI (r = 0.57; P < 0.05). Mean GI/GL differences between DQ and 24-HDR were significant for most centers. GL but not GI from DQ was highly correlated with total carbohydrate (r = 0.98 and 0.15, respectively; P < 0.0001) and this was higher for starch (r = 0.72; P < 0.0001) than for sugars (r = 0.36; P < 0.0001). The inter-rater and inter-method variations were considerable for GI (weighted kappa coefficients of 0.49 and 0.65 for inter-rater and 0.25 for inter-method variation, respectively) but only mild for GL (weighted kappa coefficients > 0.80). A more consistent methodology to attribute GI values to foods and validated DQ is needed to derive meaningful GI/GL estimates for nutritional epidemiology.
5.
Wood, Angela M., et al.
(author)
Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption : combined analysis of individual-participant data for 599 912 current drinkers in 83 prospective studies
2018
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391:10129, s. 1513-1523
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
Background: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease.Methods: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12.5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5.6 years [5th-95th percentile 1.04-13.5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies.Findings: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5.4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1.14, 95% CI, 1.10-1.17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1.06, 1.00-1.11), heart failure (1.09, 1.03-1.15), fatal hypertensive disease (1.24, 1.15-1.33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1.15, 1.03-1.28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was loglinearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0.94, 0.91-0.97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-<= 100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-<= 200 g per week, >200-<= 350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively.Interpretation: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines.
6.
Porta, Miquel, et al.
(author)
Plasma concentrations of persistent organic pollutants and pancreatic cancer risk
2022
In: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 51:2, s. 479-490
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
Background: Findings and limitations of previous studies on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and pancreatic cancer risk support conducting further research in prospective cohorts.Methods: We conducted a prospective case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Participants were 513 pancreatic cancer cases and 1020 matched controls. Concentrations of 22 POPs were measured in plasma collected at baseline.Results: Some associations were observed at higher concentrations of p, p'-DDT, trans-nonachlor, β-hexachlorocyclohexane and the sum of six organochlorine pesticides and of 16 POPs. The odds ratio (OR) for the upper quartile of trans-nonachlor was 1.55 (95% confidence interval 1.06-2.26; P for trend = 0.025). Associations were stronger in the groups predefined as most valid (participants having fasted >6 h, with microscopic diagnostic confirmation, normal weight, and never smokers), and as most relevant (follow-up ≥10 years). Among participants having fasted >6 h, the ORs were relevant for 10 of 11 exposures. Higher ORs were also observed among cases with microscopic confirmation than in cases with a clinical diagnosis, and among normal-weight participants than in the rest of participants. Among participants with a follow-up ≥10 years, estimates were higher than in participants with a shorter follow-up (for trans-nonachlor: OR = 2.14, 1.01 to 4.53, P for trend = 0.035). Overall, trans-nonachlor, three PCBs and the two sums of POPs were the exposures most clearly associated with pancreatic cancer risk.Conclusions: Individually or in combination, most of the 22 POPs analysed did not or only moderately increased the risk of pancreatic cancer.
7.
Mahamat-Saleh, Yahya, et al.
(author)
Baseline and lifetime alcohol consumption and risk of skin cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort (EPIC)
2023
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 152:3, s. 348-362
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
Experimental evidence suggests that alcohol induces cutaneous carcinogenesis, yet epidemiological studies on the link between alcohol intake and skin cancer have been inconsistent. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) is a prospective cohort initiated in 1992 in 10 European countries. Alcohol intake at baseline and average lifetime alcohol intake were assessed using validated country-specific dietary and lifestyle questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated in Cox models. A total of 14 037 skin cancer cases (melanoma: n = 2457; basal-cell carcinoma (BCC): n = 8711; squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC): n = 1928; unknown: n = 941) were identified among 450 112 participants (average follow-up: 15 years). Baseline alcohol intake was positively associated with SCC (>15 vs 0.1-4.9 g/day: HR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.17-1.77; Ptrend =.001), BCC (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.01-1.23; Ptrend =.04), and melanoma risks in men (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.95-1.44; Ptrend =.17), while associations were more modest in women (SCC: HR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.90-1.30; Ptrend =.13; BCC: HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00-1.17, Ptrend =.03; melanoma: HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.80-1.08, Ptrend =.13). Associations were similar for lifetime alcohol intake, with an attenuated linear trend. Lifetime liquor/spirit intake was positively associated with melanoma (fourth vs first quartile: HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.08-1.99; Ptrend =.0009) and BCC risks in men (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.04-1.31; Ptrend =.14). Baseline and lifetime intakes of wine were associated with BCC risk (HR = 1.25 in men; HR = 1.11-1.12; in women). No statistically significant associations were found between beverage types and SCC risk. Intake of beer was not associated with skin cancer risk. Our study suggests positive relationships between alcohol intake and skin cancer risk, which may have important implications for the primary prevention of skin cancer.
8.
Romieu, Isabelle, et al.
(author)
Fiber intake modulates the association of alcohol intake with breast cancer
2017
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 140:2, s. 316-321
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
Alcohol intake has been related to an increased risk of breast cancer (BC) while dietary fiber intake has been inversely associated to BC risk. A beneficial effect of fibers on ethanol carcinogenesis through their impact on estrogen levels is still controversial. We investigated the role of dietary fiber as a modifying factor of the association of alcohol and BC using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). This study included 334,850 women aged 35–70 years at baseline enrolled in the ten countries of the EPIC study and followed up for 11.0 years on average. Information on fiber and alcohol intake at baseline and average lifetime alcohol intake were calculated from country-specific dietary and lifestyle questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HR) of developing invasive BC according to different levels of alcohol and fiber intake were computed. During 3,670,439 person-years, 11,576 incident BC cases were diagnosed. For subjects with low intake of fiber (<18.5 g/day), the risk of BC per 10 g/day of alcohol intake was 1.06 (1.03–1.08) while among subjects with high intake of fiber (>24.2 g/day) the risk of BC was 1.02 (0.99–1.05) (test for interaction p = 0.011). This modulating effect was stronger for fiber from vegetables. Our results suggest that fiber intake may modulate the positive association of alcohol intake and BC. Alcohol is well known to increase the risk for BC, while a fiber-rich diet has the opposite effect. Here the authors find a significant interaction between both lifestyle factors indicating that high fiber intake can ease the adverse effects associated with alcohol consumption. Consequently, women with high alcohol intake and low fiber intake (<18.5 g/day) had the highest risk for BC. Specific benefits were associated with fibers from vegetable, warranting further investigations into specific fiber sources and their mechanistic interactions with alcohol-induced BC risk.
9.
Lassale, Camille, et al.
(author)
Separate and combined associations of obesity and metabolic health with coronary heart disease : a pan-European case-cohort analysis
2018
In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press. - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 39:5, s. 397-406
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
Aims: The hypothesis of 'metabolically healthy obesity' implies that, in the absence of metabolic dysfunction, individuals with excess adiposity are not at greater cardiovascular risk. We tested this hypothesis in a large pan-European prospective study.Methods and results: We conducted a case-cohort analysis in the 520 000-person European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study ('EPIC-CVD'). During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, we recorded 7637 incident coronary heart disease (CHD) cases. Using cut-offs recommended by guidelines, we defined obesity and overweight using body mass index (BMI), and metabolic dysfunction ('unhealthy') as ≥ 3 of elevated blood pressure, hypertriglyceridaemia, low HDL-cholesterol, hyperglycaemia, and elevated waist circumference. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) within each country using Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regressions, accounting for age, sex, centre, education, smoking, diet, and physical activity. Compared with metabolically healthy normal weight people (reference), HRs were 2.15 (95% CI: 1.79; 2.57) for unhealthy normal weight, 2.33 (1.97; 2.76) for unhealthy overweight, and 2.54 (2.21; 2.92) for unhealthy obese people. Compared with the reference group, HRs were 1.26 (1.14; 1.40) and 1.28 (1.03; 1.58) for metabolically healthy overweight and obese people, respectively. These results were robust to various sensitivity analyses.Conclusion: Irrespective of BMI, metabolically unhealthy individuals had higher CHD risk than their healthy counterparts. Conversely, irrespective of metabolic health, overweight and obese people had higher CHD risk than lean people. These findings challenge the concept of 'metabolically healthy obesity', encouraging population-wide strategies to tackle obesity.
10.
Kliemann, Nathalie, et al.
(author)
Metabolic signatures of greater body size and their associations with risk of colorectal and endometrial cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
2021
In: BMC Medicine. - : BioMed Central. - 1741-7015. ; 19:1
Journal article (peer-reviewed) abstract
Background: The mechanisms underlying the obesity-cancer relationship are incompletely understood. This study aimed to characterise metabolic signatures of greater body size and to investigate their association with two obesity-related malignancies, endometrial and colorectal cancers, and with weight loss within the context of an intervention study.Methods: Targeted mass spectrometry metabolomics data from 4326 participants enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort and 17 individuals from a single-arm pilot weight loss intervention (Intercept) were used in this analysis. Metabolic signatures of body size were first determined in discovery (N = 3029) and replication (N = 1297) sets among EPIC participants by testing the associations between 129 metabolites and body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) using linear regression models followed by partial least squares analyses. Conditional logistic regression models assessed the associations between the metabolic signatures with endometrial (N = 635 cases and 648 controls) and colorectal (N = 423 cases and 423 controls) cancer risk using nested case-control studies in EPIC. Pearson correlation between changes in the metabolic signatures and weight loss was tested among Intercept participants.Results: After adjustment for multiple comparisons, greater BMI, WC, and WHR were associated with higher levels of valine, isoleucine, glutamate, PC aa C38:3, and PC aa C38:4 and with lower levels of asparagine, glutamine, glycine, serine, lysoPC C17:0, lysoPC C18:1, lysoPC C18:2, PC aa C42:0, PC ae C34:3, PC ae C40:5, and PC ae C42:5. The metabolic signature of BMI (OR1-sd 1.50, 95% CI 1.30–1.74), WC (OR1-sd 1.46, 95% CI 1.27–1.69), and WHR (OR1-sd 1.54, 95% CI 1.33–1.79) were each associated with endometrial cancer risk. Risk of colorectal cancer was positively associated with the metabolic signature of WHR (OR1-sd: 1.26, 95% CI 1.07–1.49). In the Intercept study, a positive correlation was observed between weight loss and changes in the metabolic signatures of BMI (r = 0.5, 95% CI 0.06–0.94, p = 0.03), WC (r = 0.5, 95% CI 0.05–0.94, p = 0.03), and WHR (r = 0.6, 95% CI 0.32–0.87, p = 0.01).Conclusions: Obesity is associated with a distinct metabolic signature comprising changes in levels of specific amino acids and lipids which is positively associated with both colorectal and endometrial cancer and is potentially reversible following weight loss.
